Phuket Has 19 Months of Stock. That Is a Map, Not a Warning.

Phuket has 90,597 residential units on the market worth ฿705 billion, according to the Agency for Real Estate Affairs, and 85 percent of them are already sold. The obvious readings are “boom” and “glut”, and the headline writers will pick whichever suits. Both are wrong. This is a stock count, not a momentum figure, and for anyone buying property in Phuket the useful information is not the size of the pile. It is where the pile is deepest.

What AREA said

AREA’s 2026 survey, published in Thai by Thansettakij and translated by The Nation on 12 September, counted 806 projects across Mueang Phuket, Kathu and Thalang with units still for sale: 411 in Thalang, 281 in Mueang Phuket and 84 in Kathu. Between them, 90,597 units worth ฿705.055 billion. Of those, 76,582 units worth ฿527.777 billion have sold, about 85 percent.

Absorption runs at about 5.2 percent of available units a month. On that pace, and with no new launches, Dr Sopon Pornchokchai estimates the remaining stock clears in 19.2 months.

Units entering the market in 2026 alone: 13,779, worth ฿176.538 billion, an average of ฿12.812 million each. That is the highest average of any province in the country, and it is the number that will get quoted at dinner.

Resort villas and resort condominiums are 52 percent of units and about 80 percent of value, with resort condos at ฿339.227 billion and resort villas at ฿221.672 billion. Residential condominiums aimed at Thai buyers are 21,392 units, 24 percent of the market, and they sell fastest at 8.1 percent a month. Resort product sells at 4.9 percent a month. Houses, townhouses, shophouses and subdivided land move at about 3 percent. AREA puts Thai buyers at 15 to 25 percent of the premium market.

One point of housekeeping. This is one consultancy’s survey of developer projects, not Land Department transfer data. Well established, widely cited, and still a survey.

What 19.2 months actually measures

Nineteen months of stock is neither a warning nor a green light. It is an island-wide average across product that sells at 8 percent a month and product that sells at 3 percent, and an average of that kind hides more than it shows.

The 85 percent sold figure needs the same care. As I read the method, it counts every unit sold in a project that still has stock, including units that sold three years ago. It tells you those projects have, over their life, moved most of what they built. It does not tell you what sold last quarter.

Then there is the condition attached: no new launches. Phuket brought 13,779 units to market this year. Nobody is about to stop. So 19.2 months is a floor for how long the current stock takes to clear, not a forecast.

What the number does confirm is that this is a functioning market. Five percent a month across ninety thousand units is real absorption, and it sits comfortably with where the market stood at mid-year. The island is not stuck. It is well supplied, and well supplied is a buyer’s condition more than a seller’s.

Thalang is where the choice is

Of 806 projects, 411 are in Thalang, the district that holds Cherng Talay, Bang Tao, Layan and the airport corridor. AREA counts 24,994 resort condominium units there, 54 percent of everything on the market in the district, worth ฿236.807 billion.

This is my patch, so I will say it plainly. If you want a resort condominium on the west coast, you have twenty-five thousand new units to consider before you look at a single resale. That is not a reason to avoid Thalang. It is the reason to be exacting in it. Developer track record, building management, the depth of the resale pool, and tenure, which matters more than most buyers expect and which I have set out separately. With this much choice, the building that holds its value is the one with a reason to.

AREA also notes developers moving north and east, to Si Sunthon, Mai Khao, Pa Klok and Chalong, as west coast land gets scarce and dear. New supply is following the land. Whether demand follows the supply is the question to ask of every launch outside the established corridor.

Buying property in Phuket at ฿20 to 40 million

The villa figure is the one I would pin to the wall. Of the resort villas AREA counted, 43 percent, or 2,930 units, are priced between ฿20 million and ฿40 million. Resort villa projects launched in 2025 to 2026 average ฿32 million a unit, and villas are 60 percent of those launches by project count.

So the band most international villa buyers shop in is also the band with the most sellers in it. That is where a patient buyer negotiates hardest, because the alternative is always a few hundred metres up the road. And it is where an owner has to be most precise about what makes theirs different, because the buyer will have walked through four others that week.

AREA puts Cherng Talay and Bang Tao rental yields at 6 to 8 percent. That is a consultancy estimate and, as far as the report shows, a gross one: before management, void periods and the running costs that never make the brochure. Treat it as a range to test against, not a return to bank.

What it means for a buyer

Negotiate in the ฿20 to 40 million villa band. Nearly three thousand new units sit in that bracket. Choice is leverage. Use the time the market is giving you.

In Thalang, choose the building, not the district. Twenty-five thousand resort condominiums do not hold value equally. Track record, management and resale depth separate them, and none of that is in the price per square metre.

Ask what sold recently, not what is sold. An 85 percent sold figure is cumulative. Ask a developer for the last six months of contracts in the specific project. The answer, or the absence of one, tells you where you stand.

What it means for an owner

Your resale is not in these figures. AREA counts developer stock, which means every buyer who reaches your listing has been shown the new supply first. If your villa sits in the ฿20 to 40 million band, you are competing with 2,930 new units before the resale market is counted. The edge a resale has is that it exists: it is built, titled, and can be walked through in the green season with the rain on the roof. Price to that edge, present to it, and have the tenure and transfer paperwork ready before the first viewing, because a buyer with this much choice does not wait.

The read

Phuket has a large, functioning, well-supplied market, with the choice concentrated in Thalang resort condominiums and ฿20 to 40 million villas. Nineteen months of stock is manageable. It is also a map. The ฿705 billion figure tells you the market is big. The 5.2 percent tells you it works. Neither tells you which unit to buy or how to price the one you own, and that is where the work is.

Buying or selling on Phuket’s west coast? Message me on WhatsApp: +66 93 760 8561.

Source: The Nation Thailand, “Phuket property market hits 705bn baht as foreign buyers drive resort demand”, 12 September 2026, translating Thansettakij. All figures are from the Agency for Real Estate Affairs 2026 survey as reported, and are a consultancy survey of developer projects, not official transfer data. Yield figures are AREA estimates.

Rex Butler, Managing Director, Butler Estates. This is general market commentary, not legal, tax or investment advice.